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  • "The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent" - John Maynard Keynes

    Sunday, December 28, 2008



    I'm going to write some more about my 2009 forecast and 2008 results in a future post but here are some of the broad ideas. One of the key things I'm expecting is a substantial recovery in base metals, energy and broadly in commodities. This is simply because prices have fallen so far that the economy can do badly and still perform better than the market is expecting. I expect that:

    There are two great articles one from the WSJ and the other from Fortune by Ken Fisher which broadly agree with me.

    As a value investor the right question about the above is so what! As Seth Klarman explains in Margin of Safety when you make macro calls you need to be right on the call, make it before everyone else does, make it before the market has priced it in, convert the idea into the correct trades, identify when the trend has become correctly priced and again trade out. This is vastly harder than buying undervalued securities of businesses and then selling them when they reach fair value. Therefore the only real take away is that STOCKS ARE CHEAP RIGHT NOW(especially resource stocks)!
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    Disclaimer and Disclosure Analyses are prepared from sources and data believed to be reliable, but no representation is made as to their accuracy or completeness. I am not paid by covered companies. Strategies or ideas are presented for informational purposes and should not be used as a basis for any financial decisions.
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