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    Tuesday, November 18, 2008

     

    2008 February – December Predictions Closing Some Positions

    Of my 7 levered ideas for 5% of your portfolio in 2008 I think that 1,2,3 & 6 are pretty much ready to be closed out:

    1. NASDAQ will see another major fall off a higher peak. QQQQs see less than 40 (buy puts on QQQQ especially as it heads higher) (45.59 on Feb 1 - now 28.37, puts would have made about 8-10 times your money)
    2. Junk bond spreads widen substantially (buy puts on JNK) (46 on Feb 1 - now 30.43, puts would have made about 8-10 times your money)
    3. Japanese yen appreciates against a basket of currencies but especially against the Euro (and maybe GBP) (long JPYEUR) (.0063 on Feb 1 - now .0082, 30% unlevered return)
    6. The banking index falls even more from here and banks keep announcing new write downs every quarter (buy puts on BKX RKH) (96.11 Feb 1 - now 46.12, puts would have made 10-12 times your money).

    I'll review the performance at the end of the year but I think these have had most of their appreciation.
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    Disclaimer and Disclosure Analyses are prepared from sources and data believed to be reliable, but no representation is made as to their accuracy or completeness. I am not paid by covered companies. Strategies or ideas are presented for informational purposes and should not be used as a basis for any financial decisions.
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