Investing

2007 Performance

In my 2007 predictions I forecast:

1. A recession or very low growth period
2. Credit spread expansion
3. Silver, Gold, Oil, Coal and Uranium little changes or down slightly
4. The fed flooding the system with liquidity
5. The goldilocks forecast of moderating but still significant economic growth leading into a reacceleration in the later half of the year would be incorrect
6. 40% chance that NASDAQ 100 would be up
7. 50% chance that commodities would be up

1. I really expected 1 to occur earlier than the very beginning of 2008 so I’m going to call that early rather than wrong.
2. I’ve been dead right on 2 and predicted that would be the best risk reward trade of 2007
3. I was wrong on Gold, Silver, Oil and Coal. Uranium is down from January 2007. I was right not to sell any of my stocks in these commodities.
4. The fed has absolutely flooded the system with liquidity but only since the beginning of 2008 so I’m going to call early rather than wrong
5. The consensus goldilocks forecast was wrong making me correct
6&7 NASDAQ and commodities ended the year up quite a bit and I was wrong on them.

So 3 right, 2 early and 2 wrong. My performance for the year was about 50% in USD so I managed to capitalize on the rights.