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  • "The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent" - John Maynard Keynes

    Tuesday, June 08, 2004

    Sell OCA
    I may post some more about OCA in the near future but for now I have sold my position. They have altered the way they report their financial and this new reporting (which appears to better reflect the underlying economics of the business) indicates that the business is in fact fairly valued. Given my low opinion of management and little upside on the valuation I think selling OCA is the best course of action.

    More on the housing bubble
    This link shows four fantastic graphs that show
  • The price of a house versus what you can get in rent is at a 50 year high (similar to the market PE)
  • The price of a house versus incomes is at a 50 year high
  • The price of a house versus it's replacement value (Equivalent of Tobin's Q in the stock market) is at a 50 year high
  • Owner-Occupied Residential Real Estate Leverage is at a 50 year high

    These graphs mirror the stock market bubble in late 2000.
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    Disclaimer and Disclosure Analyses are prepared from sources and data believed to be reliable, but no representation is made as to their accuracy or completeness. I am not paid by covered companies. Strategies or ideas are presented for informational purposes and should not be used as a basis for any financial decisions.
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